• 

  

  40%+0.1%

  Constrained Democratic Congress

  Democrats control both chambers, but President Trump’s veto power and narrow Senate math force a limited agenda. Markets treat the result mainly as a fiscal and oversight check rather than a full policy regime change.

  Finance −0.7% · Utilities +0.7% · Technology +0.6%

• 

  

  25%−0.4%

  Budget Showdown Dominates

  Unified Democratic control of Congress raises the likelihood of a hard bargaining round over spending levels, agency funding and tax priorities. The market impact depends on whether leaders move quickly to a continuing resolution or allow a shutdown threat to build.

  Finance −0.7% · Consumer Services −0.4% · Industrials −0.4%

• 

  

  20%+0.1%

  Targeted Bipartisan Deals

  Despite partisan control, both sides look for narrow wins that can pass Congress and receive a presidential signature. The most plausible areas are permitting reform, drug pricing, border-related appropriations and household tax relief.

  Industrials +0.5% · Non-Energy Materials +0.5% · Healthcare −0.4%

• 

  

  15%+0.2%

  Certification And Litigation

  Because the Senate margin depends on multiple GOP-held seats flipping, recounts and lawsuits could shape the market’s confidence in the result. The base case is certification, but delayed control would briefly raise institutional-risk premia.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.2% · Finance +0.1% · Technology +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.