Japan Stays Cautious

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Tokyo welcomes Merz’s initiative but avoids a firm commitment to tariff coordination, reflecting Japan’s large commercial exposure to China and its preference for WTO-compatible language. This is the most cautious diplomatic path and would keep the alliance idea alive without creating a sharp market repricing.

What it moves

Industrials+0.1%
Consumer Cyclicals+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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