China Pushback

14%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

China responds sharply to Merz’s invitation to Japan, warning against coordinated tariffs and hinting at countermeasures. The risk is not a full trade war, but even a limited retaliation threat would weigh on European and Japanese firms with large China exposure.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.7%
Industrials−0.5%
Non-Energy Materials−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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