• 

  42%

  +0.1%

  Inquiry Stays Contained

  NABU and SAPO treat the searches as evidence-gathering in the broader corruption probe rather than an immediate move against National Bank of Ukraine leadership. Andriy Pyshnyi remains in office, the NBU pledges cooperation, and EU/IMF disbursements remain on track after Ukraine’s recent aid-unlocking legislation.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  28%

  −0.4%

  Governor Steps Aside

  Pyshnyi temporarily exits day-to-day management or resigns to reduce pressure on the central bank while the probe advances. The main risk is a perceived weakening of NBU continuity, though an orderly acting-governor process limits damage to EU and IMF financing channels.

  Finance −0.5%

• 

  18%

  −0.9%

  Probe Widens Sharply

  Investigators connect the NBU searches to the broader corruption investigation that has already reached Zelensky-linked figures and earlier Ukrgasbank allegations. This outcome would put Ukraine’s central-bank governance and Western financing conditionality under much closer scrutiny.

  Finance −1.4% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  12%

  −0.2%

  Institutional Clash Returns

  The searches revive the political confrontation over NABU and SAPO independence that previously threatened Western support. The key variable is whether Zelensky’s administration accepts the investigation or tries again to curb anti-corruption agencies.

  Finance −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.