• 

  45%0.0%

  Evacuation Largely Succeeds

  The most likely outcome is that the agreed truce functions as intended and Ukraine receives most of the 527 expected residents from occupied Oleshky. Both sides have already finalized the plan and begun the ceasefire window, making a controlled humanitarian transfer plausible despite mistrust.

• 

  25%0.0%

  Partial Evacuation Only

  The truce remains formally in place, but the evacuation falls short of the 527-person expectation. Logistical bottlenecks, Russian screening, damaged infrastructure, and fear among residents leave a substantial number still in occupied territory.

• 

  18%−0.2%

  Ceasefire Frays Locally

  A localized security incident disrupts the evacuation but does not necessarily trigger a wider battlefield escalation. Both Russia and Ukraine could accuse each other of violating the truce, creating temporary uncertainty around humanitarian operations in Kherson region.

• 

  12%+0.1%

  Humanitarian Channel Expands

  A successful evacuation builds confidence for additional limited humanitarian arrangements in occupied parts of Kherson region. This would not amount to a political settlement, but it could create a narrow channel for more civilian transfers, prisoner exchanges, or body repatriations.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.