• 

  38%−0.1%

  Democratic Surge Holds

  The noon turnout surge proves to be an early indicator of unusually strong Democratic enthusiasm in major metro and suburban counties. With the Texas Senate race already shifted to Lean D, analysts would likely move the race closer to Likely D if Harris, Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Fort Bend and Collin continue to overperform.

  Energy −0.5% · Healthcare +0.4% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  29%0.0%

  Bipartisan Turnout Wave

  The turnout jump reflects broad voter engagement rather than a clean partisan signal. Both campaigns find favorable data: Democrats cite large urban totals, while Republicans point to heavy participation in smaller counties and strong modeled GOP ballot returns.

  Healthcare −0.1% · Energy +0.1%

• 

  18%−0.3%

  Legal Disputes Expand

  The combination of very high turnout and the recently cleared registration backlog creates litigation risk. Party lawyers and county officials clash over provisional ballots, registration-list maintenance, poll-worker staffing and whether some counties need extended voting hours.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  15%+0.1%

  Early Spike Fades

  The first-day numbers prove less predictive than they look, either because of front-loaded voting, reporting quirks or a correction in county data feeds. Later daily totals normalize, and the Texas Senate race moves back toward a tighter Lean D or Toss-up posture.

  Energy +0.3% · Finance +0.2% · Healthcare −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.