Early Spike Fades

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The first-day numbers prove less predictive than they look, either because of front-loaded voting, reporting quirks or a correction in county data feeds. Later daily totals normalize, and the Texas Senate race moves back toward a tighter Lean D or Toss-up posture.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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