Possible scenario
Reform Passes Intact
+0.1%
Zelenskyy secures parliamentary backing for mandatory asset declarations across the Security Service of Ukraine, framing the move as a direct response to NABU’s findings. The outcome is likely because Kyiv has strong incentives to preserve EU accession momentum and IMF disbursements after the October 2026 reform package.
What it moves
- Finance+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.