Possible scenario
Public Breakdown
−0.8%
The arranged meeting exposes irreconcilable positions and leads to public recriminations among Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow. This would be a sharper geopolitical disappointment than a stalled process, but still short of a new war shock because the conflict is already ongoing.
What it moves
- Energy+0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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