• 

  38%

  +0.4%

  Limited Framework Progress

  Zelenskyy’s team and Trump envoys use the arranged meeting to narrow procedural gaps without resolving the war’s hardest questions. The most likely constructive outcome is a limited framework focused on sequencing, monitoring, and humanitarian measures rather than a final peace deal.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.4% · Energy −0.3% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  32%

  −0.2%

  Talks Stall Quietly

  The meeting happens, but the parties remain far apart on territory, security guarantees, sanctions, and enforcement. Diplomacy continues because none of the principals wants to be blamed for collapse, but the process yields little near-term market-moving substance.

  Finance −0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1% · Energy +0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.8%

  Public Breakdown

  The arranged meeting exposes irreconcilable positions and leads to public recriminations among Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow. This would be a sharper geopolitical disappointment than a stalled process, but still short of a new war shock because the conflict is already ongoing.

  Energy +0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.6% · Finance −0.6%

• 

  10%

  +1.2%

  Ceasefire Breakthrough

  A lower-probability but important upside case is that the arranged meeting reveals Kyiv and Washington have aligned on a text acceptable enough to test with Moscow. A verifiable pause in fighting would be a material geopolitical shift, though a durable settlement would still be uncertain.

  Consumer Cyclicals +1.2% · Energy −1.1% · Finance +1.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.