Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breakthrough
+1.2%
A lower-probability but important upside case is that the arranged meeting reveals Kyiv and Washington have aligned on a text acceptable enough to test with Moscow. A verifiable pause in fighting would be a material geopolitical shift, though a durable settlement would still be uncertain.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals+1.2%
- Energy−1.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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