Talarico Clear Win

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talarico wins by a margin large enough to avoid a serious post-election dispute. His fundraising edge, heavy television spending, and suburban gains turn the late polling lead into a decisive Texas upset.

What it moves

Energy−0.6%
Utilities+0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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