Paxton Comeback Win

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Ken Paxton beats the odds and holds the Texas Senate seat for Republicans. This outcome would contradict the 74% implied probability for Talarico and the final poll showing him ahead, making it a modest political surprise.

What it moves

Energy+0.7%
Finance+0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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