Prolonged Disputed Count

The election is too close to call, with late-arriving ballots, provisional ballots, or county-level disputes delaying a clear outcome. This is the least likely path because Talarico’s market odds and polling edge point to a probable win, but Texas’s size makes a narrow unresolved count plausible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.