US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that Washington remains open to a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran and that President Donald Trump has not yet decided whether to launch further military strikes against Tehran. Speaking in remarks reported by Reuters, Rubio added that there is no set timeframe for ongoing Qatar-led negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.
If this story plays out
Scenarios
Rubio’s comments followed warnings earlier Saturday from Iran’s top leadership that the country would expand the scope of any renewed fighting. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met with Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, Army Commander Amir Hatami and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Vahidi, ordering them to meet any threat with an “immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations” and to update their target bank to bring all tangible and intangible US and Israeli assets within reach.
Following the meeting, Abdollahi said the military had compiled a broader list of US and Israeli targets and warned that Iran would strike preemptively rather than wait for an attack to begin if it confirmed signs of a hostile act. On Friday, Trump told Kansas City radio station KCMO that the war with Iran was “going to get wrapped up soon,” while adding that the US needed “a guarantee there’ll never be a nuclear weapon.”
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Portfolio
If this story plays out
−8.0%
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
Story, if it plays out
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Portfolio
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
94%
89%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
94%
89%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
0%
7%
12%