Possible scenario
Market Stress Builds
10%
−1.1%
The hold fails to calm markets because investors focus on inflation persistence, dissent inside the Policy Board, and the risk of abrupt future hikes. The outcome is not a crisis, but it produces a sharper short-term volatility response than a normal policy pause.
What it moves
- Technology−1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.