• 

  42%

  +0.2%

  Eisenkot Forms Coalition

  Gadi Eisenkot is the most likely beneficiary of the anti-Netanyahu alignment after recommendations from United Torah Judaism, Avigdor Lieberman and other opposition factions. A narrow government forms around a security-first, post-war reconstruction agenda, but its ideological breadth makes it fragile from the start.

  Finance +0.3% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  28%

  −0.2%

  Netanyahu Blocks Transition

  Benjamin Netanyahu remains politically resilient by preventing enough right-wing or Haredi lawmakers from signing onto Eisenkot’s bloc. Israel stays under a caretaker government while negotiations continue, prolonging policy uncertainty after the inconclusive election.

  Finance −0.2% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  18%

  −0.3%

  New Election Called

  Coalition talks collapse because Eisenkot cannot reconcile Haredi demands, Lieberman’s secular agenda and anti-Netanyahu red lines. The Knesset moves toward another election, extending political paralysis and delaying major decisions on Gaza, budgets and judicial issues.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Services −0.2%

• 

  12%

  0.0%

  Broad Emergency Government

  Instead of a clean opposition takeover, President Herzog pushes the main security-oriented factions toward a temporary unity framework. This reduces immediate governance risk but leaves Netanyahu’s status, Gaza policy and a later election unresolved.

  Finance +0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.