A Western intelligence assessment finds that Tehran has maintained the capacity to build about 50 ballistic missiles monthly, a rate roughly half of its output before the conflict. The report indicates that Iran holds a current stockpile of at least 1,700 ballistic missiles, providing the country with a means of retaliation should hostilities resume despite months of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting military infrastructure.

The findings contradict assertions by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that more than 80% of Iran’s nuclear industrial base had been destroyed. While the intelligence indicates that the air campaign degraded Iran’s conventional military, Tehran has continued assembly via a reserve of components and reportedly receives strike weapons from Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently unveiled a new underground facility housing hypersonic and cruise missiles, though a former CIA analyst noted that the 1,700-missile figure is likely a floor with significant uncertainty.