From todayIran Blocks UN Nuclear Inspectors from Multiple Sites for 3 Months

• 

  40%

  −0.3%

  Prolonged Inspection Standoff

  Iran keeps inspectors out of several sensitive sites while avoiding a formal withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The most likely path is a controlled standoff in which Tehran preserves leverage after the failed U.S. deal push, while the IAEA and European governments escalate diplomatically rather than economically.

  Energy +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.2%

• 

  27%

  −0.7%

  Western Sanctions Escalation

  Washington and major European governments respond to the access blockade with new sanctions on Iranian energy, shipping and procurement networks. Russia and China prevent a strong U.N. Security Council package, but unilateral U.S. and EU steps still raise oil-risk premia.

  Energy +1.4% · Consumer Services −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%

• 

  18%

  −1.3%

  Limited Security Escalation

  The inspection blockade increases Israeli and Gulf concerns that Iran is using the three-month window to conceal enrichment activity or weaponization work. The likely escalation is limited and deniable rather than an open regional war, but crude and volatility would react more sharply.

  Energy +3.0% · Consumer Services −1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.2%

• 

  15%

  +0.5%

  Mediated Inspection Compromise

  Oman, Qatar or the European Union helps broker a limited access formula that lets Iran claim sovereignty while the IAEA restores partial visibility. This scenario is less likely after the U.S. deal push collapsed, but Tehran has previously used calibrated access to prevent sanctions unity.

  Energy −0.9% · Consumer Services +0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%