From todayIAEA Finds No Evidence Iran Has Rebuilt Struck Nuclear Facilities

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  40%

  +0.4%

  Verification Holds

  The IAEA’s finding becomes the dominant interpretation: Iran has not visibly rebuilt the facilities hit in 2025 and 2026. Tehran, the IAEA, the EU3 and the United States use the report to keep tensions contained while arguing over access and monitoring terms.

  Energy −0.5% · Consumer Services +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

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  30%

  −0.3%

  Ambiguity Persists

  The headline reduces immediate alarm but does not settle whether Iran has shifted work to smaller, less visible locations. Diplomacy continues, yet Israel, the United States and the EU3 keep pressure on Tehran for broader access.

  Energy +0.5% · Consumer Services −0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.7%

  Covert Evidence Emerges

  Subsequent intelligence, satellite imagery or IAEA sampling undermines the current no-evidence finding. The most likely form is not a confirmed bomb program, but renewed evidence of reconstruction, equipment movement or undeclared nuclear-related activity.

  Energy +1.4% · Consumer Services −0.7% · Technology −0.3%

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  10%

  −1.3%

  Military Risk Returns

  The no-evidence finding fails to prevent a renewed security crisis, either because Israel distrusts the IAEA assessment or because Iran responds aggressively to inspection demands. This is less likely than a diplomatic stalemate but remains plausible given the 2025-2026 strike history.

  Energy +2.5% · Consumer Services −2.0% · Technology −0.7%