Prolonged Inspection Standoff

Iran keeps inspectors out of several sensitive sites while avoiding a formal withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The most likely path is a controlled standoff in which Tehran preserves leverage after the failed U.S. deal push, while the IAEA and European governments escalate diplomatically rather than economically.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.