Possible scenario

Washington Faces Scrutiny

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The report turns into a U.S. oversight issue, especially after Marco Rubio’s denial of official involvement. Congressional Democrats and foreign-policy committees press the State Department, DHS and intelligence agencies for records.

What it moves

Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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