Possible scenario

Dispute Stays Contained

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington, Buenos Aires and Brasília keep the episode inside diplomatic channels. The reported airport intervention is reframed as limited security coordination, while Brazil preserves legal objections without forcing an immediate rupture.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
US dollar▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?