Possible scenario
Major Diplomatic Break
10%
−0.5%
New evidence confirms that U.S. agents materially helped Bolsonaro evade Brazilian court restrictions. Brasília frames the episode as interference in Brazil’s judiciary, producing the most severe diplomatic fallout among plausible near-term outcomes.
What it moves
- Consumer Services−0.4%
- Finance−0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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