Possible scenario

Brazil Escalates Legally

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Justice Alexandre de Moraes and the Lula administration respond by expanding legal requests to Argentina and the United States. The confrontation remains legalistic but increases diplomatic friction over Bolsonaro’s presence in Miami.

What it moves

Finance−0.3%
Consumer Services−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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