Possible scenario
Fiscal Negotiations Advance
27%
+0.6%
The scale of interest costs gives both parties a political reason to discuss partial deficit reduction after the 2026 election. Markets do not assume a grand bargain, but even a credible package of caps, tax changes, and enforcement rules would reduce term-premium pressure.
What it moves
- Technology+0.7%
- Finance+0.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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