Licensing Review Begins

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump’s hedging gives cover for a temporary review of the December 2025 H200 sales approval. This scenario does not assume a full export-control reversal, but it delays shipments and increases uncertainty around Nvidia’s China revenue.

What it moves

Technology−1.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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