Netanyahu Retains Premiership

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Netanyahu remains a skilled coalition negotiator and may still find a way to survive through Ra’am abstentions, final-count improvements, or pressure on small right-wing factions. The constraint is that Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have strong ideological objections to dependence on Ra’am.

What it moves

Industrials+0.1%
Consumer Services−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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