Centrist Ra’am Government

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid have the clearest path if the final count leaves Benjamin Netanyahu below 58 and Mansour Abbas decides Ra’am can again trade support for Arab-sector budgets and planning reforms. This is politically difficult after the Gaza war, but Ra’am has precedent from 2021 and both blocs now appear to need it.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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