Providers are projected to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026 and another $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030, yet less than half of resulting revenue will reach hardware owners due to the asset-light models of AI app developers. Neoclouds are the most exposed as they lack the diversified revenue streams that allow hyperscalers to absorb such losses. This risk is highlighted by CoreWeave bonds, which yield around 16%, and an AI-optimized infrastructure-as-a-service market that grows from $66 billion in 2027 to $174 billion in 2030, a pace Gartner says is too slow for most providers to recoup investments.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Gartner Projects $3.5 Trillion AI Infrastructure Write-Downs by 2030
AI1 day ago
More than $3.5 trillion of spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure could require write-downs by 2030 because revenue is not expected to cover investment costs, Gartner forecasts. The research firm's analysis suggests that owners of data centers will need approximately $8.5 trillion in revenue by 2030 to earn a 12% return, but it projects actual revenue will only reach $3.6 trillion. This capital gap, which has fueled a recent rout in technology stocks, is likely to result in over 80% of "neocloud" GPU rental providers losing their independence.
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