S&P Forecasts Meta to Burn $71B in Cash by 2027 Due to AI Spend

S&P Global Ratings expects Meta to spend as much as $252B annually on infrastructure by 2028 as the company accelerates its artificial intelligence buildout. The rating agency now forecasts a free cash flow deficit for the company over the next three years, with cash burn peaking at $71B in 2027, far exceeding its previous projections of $163B in capital expenditures for that year.

The projections underpin a recent revision of Meta’s credit outlook to negative from stable, although the agency affirmed the company’s AA- credit rating. S&P warned that Meta’s leverage could exceed 1.0x by 2027, a threshold that would put its current rating at risk, and noted the company will likely rely on borrowing to cover its cash flow deficit in 2028. Meta said it “respectfully disagrees” with S&P’s view that its ability to monetize AI investments is more limited than that of its industry peers.

How we got here

U.S. AI data-center investment boom and macro exposure

Nov 1, 2026
Off-Balance-Sheet AI Commitments for Big Tech Hit Record $4.1 Trillion
Oct 31, 2026
CoreWeave and Nebius Shut Out of Bond Market as Lenders Tighten AI Credit

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If this story plays out

0.0%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−0.6% to +0.7%)

Scenarios

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

If this story plays out

Scenarios

Story, if it plays out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

40%0.0%
Spend Continues, Scrutiny Rises
Meta continues its AI infrastructure program despite S&P’s warning, arguing that capacity constraints would be more costly than near-term negative free cash flow. Investors remain divided between long-term AI optionality and the risk that leases and hardware commitments weaken Meta’s balance-sheet flexibility.
Technology −0.2%
25%−0.1%
Capex Plan Moderated
Meta responds to rating-agency and investor pressure by slowing the pace of AI data-center commitments without abandoning the strategic buildout. The company prioritizes financial flexibility, buyback capacity, and avoiding a formal downgrade.
Technology −0.2%
20%−0.5%
Rating Pressure Escalates
S&P or another major rating agency takes a tougher stance as Meta’s lease obligations and AI funding needs rise. The market begins to price Meta less like a net-cash mega-cap platform and more like a capital-intensive technology infrastructure company.
Technology −0.8%
15%+0.6%
AI Returns Validate Spend
Meta begins to show measurable revenue or margin benefits from AI products before the heaviest cash outflows arrive. This outcome would reframe S&P’s forecast as a funding bridge rather than evidence of structurally weaker economics.
Technology +0.9% · Consumer Services +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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