Possible scenario
Infrastructure Bust Deepens
25% Chance
Gartner's forecast proves directionally correct and becomes the consensus view across banks, auditors and hyperscalers. A larger share of AI infrastructure is marked as overbuilt, pressuring GPUs, servers, power equipment, data-center REITs and private-credit lenders exposed to projects with weak utilization.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.8%
- Industrials -2.3%
- Utilities -1.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- -4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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