• 

  38%

  −0.3%

  Narrow Tracking Rule

  The Commerce Department treats Anthropic’s proposal as a useful input but avoids a broad model-level GPU lock mandate. Regulators expand chip provenance, buyer attestations, and cloud-use logging around Nvidia H200-class accelerators rather than requiring hardware to block Chinese AI models directly.

  Technology −0.6% · Business Services +0.4%

• 

  24%

  −0.3%

  Hard Lock Mandate

  National-security hawks use the Anthropic request and the alleged Chinese military links among H200 buyers to push for mandatory technical controls. The policy discussion shifts from export paperwork to firmware-level enforcement, creating the highest near-term risk for GPU vendors and cloud operators.

  Technology −0.7% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  22%

  +0.5%

  Industry Compromise

  Chipmakers and cloud providers argue that model-level locks are brittle and could create new attack surfaces. They offer a standards-based alternative built around secure enclaves, customer identity checks, export-control reporting, and post-sale telemetry.

  Technology +1.1% · Business Services +0.2%

• 

  16%

  −0.8%

  China Retaliates

  China frames GPU locks as a direct attempt to disable Chinese AI development and responds with procurement restrictions, investigations, and accelerated domestic accelerator subsidies. The near-term market impact is concentrated in AI hardware and cloud names rather than the broader macro tape.

  Technology −1.6% · Industrials +0.2% · Business Services +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.