Bolsonaro finished ahead despite an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll before voting that put Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 44.1%. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the runoff. The son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro faces an incumbent seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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Bolsonaro Leads Lula by 2.1 Points as Brazil Confirms Oct. 25 Runoff
World16 days ago
Brazil’s electoral authority confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will advance to an Oct. 25 presidential runoff, with Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing to about 2.1 percentage points as the count neared completion. With 99.5% reporting, the right-wing senator had 47.13% of the vote to Lula’s 45.04%, leaving neither with the majority required to win outright.
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