Possible scenario
Lula Rebounds Narrowly
33% Chance
Lula closes the small polling gap through turnout in the Northeast, urban centers, and among voters wary of Bolsonaro's legal status. The key variable is whether Bolsonaro accepts the defeat or repeats the kind of mobilization that preceded January 2023.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.