Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Wins Runoff
42% Chance
Bolsonaro's 2.1-point first-place lead holds through the runoff as anti-Lula consolidation offsets his legal baggage. Markets would focus on whether the Superior Electoral Court and Supreme Federal Court accept the result despite the earlier ban and prison sentence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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