Possible scenario
Legal Crisis Reshapes Ballot
15% Chance
The contradiction between Bolsonaro's 2030 office ban, 2025 prison sentence, and current runoff standing becomes the central issue. Courts could allow the runoff to proceed, suspend it, or force a substitute candidacy, making this the highest-volatility branch despite its lower probability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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