Possible scenario
Trade War Escalates
−1.8%
The risk of escalation remains material because both countries have already imposed unusually high tariffs and talks have been terminated once before. If the midterm campaign rewards a hard line, Washington or Ottawa could broaden tariff coverage rather than wait for a negotiated USMCA reset.
What it moves
- Non-Energy Materials−2.7%
- Industrials−2.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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