Post-Midterm Tariff Reset

The most likely path is that Washington keeps talks frozen through the midterms, then resumes negotiations once electoral incentives change. Both governments have strong reasons to limit damage to autos, agriculture, energy, metals, and cross-border logistics before the USMCA renewal clock becomes more disruptive in 2027.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.