• 

  38%

  0.0%

  Hegseth Resigns First

  Hegseth concludes he cannot survive the House process and resigns before a formal impeachment vote. This is the cleanest off-ramp for Trump, House Republicans, and Senate allies such as Ted Cruz who are already signaling that his tenure is untenable.

  Industrials +0.1%

• 

  27%

  −0.1%

  Trump Fires Hegseth

  Trump decides that keeping Hegseth is politically costlier than dismissing him, especially after publicly blaming him for the Iran war. Firing Hegseth lets Trump claim control of the situation while trying to stop a damaging House impeachment spectacle.

  Industrials −0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.7%

  House Impeaches Hegseth

  Hegseth neither resigns nor is fired before the scheduled House vote, and enough Republicans join Democrats to impeach him. This would be an unusually severe congressional rebuke of a sitting defense secretary and would prolong uncertainty through a Senate trial or negotiated exit.

  Industrials −1.1%

• 

  10%

  +0.1%

  Hegseth Survives

  Trump and House Republican leaders manage to slow or block the impeachment process despite Cruz’s prediction. This is less likely given the recent public blame-shifting, but it remains possible if GOP leaders decide that a defense secretary impeachment would damage the party more than Hegseth himself.

  Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.