Pete Hegseth Leads Probability in New Polymarket Impeachment Forecasts

A prediction platform has released updated data on the likelihood of U.S. officials facing impeachment by next June, listing former Fox News host Pete Hegseth as the most probable target at 72%. The new odds from Polymarket come as Rep. Massie prepares to call for a House impeachment vote next week, though Democratic leadership has not yet committed to formal proceedings.

President Donald Trump is the second most likely person to be impeached in the market at 39%, ahead of Attorney General Todd Blanche at 30% and RFK Jr. at 27%. The launch of the betting pool follows calls from Hunter Biden for the immediate removal of the president and separate forecasts that placed the probability of Trump being impeached before July 2027 at 64%. Democrats are scheduled to assume control of the House in January.

How it could play out

−0.1%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−0.1% to +0.1%)

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

How it could play out

Portfolio

S&P 500

Story, how it could play out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

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Hegseth Vote Advances
Pete Hegseth remains the most likely near-term impeachment target because House Democrats have already taken up Thomas Massie’s articles and GOP aides expect action next week. The most likely path is procedural movement rather than immediate removal, since Senate conviction would remain a much higher bar.
Industrials −0.4%
+0.1%
GOP Blocks Articles
Speaker Mike Johnson and Republican whips may still contain the effort if they persuade vulnerable members that an impeachment vote would fracture the party. In this scenario, Hegseth remains politically damaged but the formal impeachment push loses momentum.
Industrials +0.3%
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Trump Focus Returns
The background timeline shows Trump impeachment odds already reached 64%, so the Hegseth focus may prove temporary. Democrats could decide that a Trump-centered vote offers a clearer political message, especially if Hegseth proceedings stall.
Finance −0.2%
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Polymarket Scrutiny Grows
The October 27 CFTC investigation into a Polymarket user ban creates a separate risk that the story becomes about market integrity rather than Hegseth’s impeachment odds. This would directly affect Polymarket and crypto-adjacent sentiment more than traditional political markets.
Technology −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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