• 

  35%

  +0.3%

  Hegseth Is Sidelined

  Trump’s statement becomes a political signal that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is being blamed for the Iran war’s costs and losing influence. JD Vance and diplomatic officials gain leverage to argue for a pause in strikes and a negotiated channel through Oman or Qatar.

  Energy −1.0% · Consumer Services +0.8% · Industrials −0.6%

• 

  25%

  −0.9%

  War Policy Hardens

  Trump’s comments are interpreted less as a peace signal and more as internal blame management before continuing the campaign. Hegseth and hawkish advisers argue that stopping now would leave Iranian coastal and missile sites partially intact.

  Energy +3.1% · Industrials +1.9% · Consumer Services −1.7%

• 

  20%

  −0.4%

  Congress Investigates War

  Trump’s assignment of responsibility gives congressional critics an opening to demand records on targeting, legal authority, and White House approval. This path creates political uncertainty but does not by itself change the military balance in the Gulf.

  Industrials −0.4% · Finance −0.3% · Technology −0.3%

• 

  12%

  +0.7%

  Negotiated Off-Ramp

  Trump’s criticism of Hegseth becomes a pretext to reverse course without appearing to concede to Tehran. Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries broker a limited arrangement tying a U.S. strike pause to Iranian restraint and renewed nuclear monitoring discussions.

  Consumer Services +2.0% · Energy −1.9% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%

• 

  8%

  −1.0%

  Command Turmoil

  The blame assignment triggers a more chaotic personnel and command episode than markets expect. Investors focus less on the policy direction and more on whether the U.S. national-security process is coherent during an active conflict with Iran.

  Consumer Services −1.8% · Energy +1.6% · Finance −1.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.