Negotiated Off-Ramp

its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump’s criticism of Hegseth becomes a pretext to reverse course without appearing to concede to Tehran. Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries broker a limited arrangement tying a U.S. strike pause to Iranian restraint and renewed nuclear monitoring discussions.

What it moves

Consumer Services+2.0%
Energy−1.9%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Negotiated Off-Ramp

Keeping an eye on this scenario?