Narrow Republican Win

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans still win Florida, but Democrats reduce the margin with late urban turnout and Election Day strength in Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, and parts of Hillsborough County. The outcome confirms a Republican advantage without creating a decisive national wave signal.

What it moves

Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?