Democratic Late Surge

17%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats outperform in late mail returns, urban Election Day turnout, or younger-voter participation, sharply reducing the Republican advantage. This would challenge the assumption that the early GOP ballot lead represents a locked-in statewide outcome.

What it moves

Finance−0.3%
Energy−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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