Counting Disputes Expand

11%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Close races and disputes over ballot curing, provisional ballots, or county reporting procedures delay final results. This is less likely than a clean GOP win, but the polarization around mail voting and ballot collection makes localized litigation plausible.

What it moves

Finance−0.4%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?