GOP Lead Holds

42%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Republican Party of Florida converts its early in-person and mail-ballot advantage into a clear Election Day edge. Given the timeline of GOP adaptation to mail voting and ballot collection, the early lead is likely to translate into durable turnout rather than simply cannibalizing Election Day votes.

What it moves

Finance+0.5%
Energy+0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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