Western Split Deepens

14%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The hardest part of the negotiation shifts from Kyiv-Moscow language to Western enforcement, sanctions, and security guarantees. The United States, Germany, France, Poland, and Baltic governments diverge over how much to concede to Russia and what guarantees Ukraine should receive.

What it moves

Energy−0.5%
Non-Energy Materials+0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?