Possible scenario
Framework Talks Advance
38%
+0.7%
Zelenskyy’s acceptance that Russia needs security guarantees creates enough diplomatic space for renewed talks involving Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Turkey, and selected European states. Moscow still demands limits on NATO activity near Russia, but the current-frontline freeze becomes the practical basis for negotiations.
What it moves
- Energy−1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials+0.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.