Possible scenario
Russia Raises Demands
18%
−0.7%
Moscow interprets the concession as evidence that Ukraine and its backers are under pressure and escalates its negotiating position. The Kremlin demands formal recognition of annexed territories, limits on Ukraine’s armed forces, and faster sanctions relief before any ceasefire.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.9%
- Energy+1.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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